The 2015 Full Year Graph: 13.7M QHPs, 12.0M Paid, 10.0M Enrolled


Time: D H M S

For obvious reasons, aside from whatever #ACATaxTime bump comes out of the next week or so, things will likely be pretty quiet and steady for The Graph for the rest of the year...assuming, of course, that the Supreme Court shoots down the King v. Burwell plaintiffs. If the King plaintiffs win, all bets are off and every line on the right half of the extended graph below (to the right of June) will probably look very different.

That major caveat aside, assuming that my (recently corrected) projections prove to be reasonably on the mark, this is what I'm expecting private QHP enrollments via the ACA exchanges to look like for the rest of 2015. The year should wrap up with roughly 13.7 million total QHP selections; of those, around 12.0 million will likely pay their first premium; and of those, roughly 10.0 million will likely still be enrolled (effectuated) as of December.

Here's the numeric table from which the extended graph data comes (click for higher-res version):

...and here's the extended graph itself (click for higher-res version):